nfl week 1 betting picks

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Nfl week 1 betting picks week 8 betting lines

Nfl week 1 betting picks

Last season, I finished the year I had a strong closing month that helped me finish with a I did not track my best bet percentage over the course of the season, but will make sure to do that this year. The pandemic resulted in no in-person offseason workouts and it also resulted in a delayed start to practice at training camp and no preseason games.

Lines are moving so some of the lines below will be different from what you see on game day. Look for value where you can! Bills With the former, I think Cam Newton has something left and could be an upgrade over recent vintage Tom Brady. Texans Chiefs Gambling problem?

Eligibility restrictions apply. Backing the Vikings at home against the spread under head coach Mike Zimmer has been very profitable, especially early in the season. With no new wide receivers for quarterback Aaron Rodgers, I see a comfortable Vikings home opening win.

Would bet to: Seahawks Since drafting Russell Wilson in , the Seahawks are straight up and And on defense, the Seahawks 18th in DVOA still project as slightly better than the Falcons 20th after both squads added players on that side of the ball in the first and second round of the draft. Cleveland has split the last four regular season games in this series including a big win at Baltimore last season. The Browns offense should be much improved under new head coach Kevin Stefanski, who graded out as the best play caller in game-neutral situations per Pro Football Focus last season.

Taking the points in Week 1 has proved extremely profitable per our Bet Labs data. Since , teams receiving more than seven points cover at a Would bet to: Cowboys Their offense will also need to replace key offensive pieces in running back Todd Gurley and wide receiver Brandin Cooks.

Even if fans can attend this game in person, the Cowboys have strong support in southern California. Would bet to: Steelers -6 Odds as of June 1: Steelers Would bet to: Broncos It is well known in the gambling universe that teams traveling to Denver in Weeks 1 or 2 of the regular season have struggled. The Titans, with a home elevation of feet, start the season in Denver at an altitude of 5, feet. Tennessee addressed one of its biggest needs in the draft with cornerback Kristian Fulton.

The addition of Isaiah Wilson to the offensive line will also be put to the test, as Denver finished 11th in adjusted sack rate for the season. Teams traveling to Denver Week 1 or 2 have been a profitable fade. The Broncos are against the spread when the number is within a field goal. While some shops in Vegas have moved Denver past a field goal, DraftKings still offers the Broncos at Sports Betting.

SPORTS PARLAY BETTING CALCULATOR ROUND ROBIN

All the proof you need is this article, which focuses only on the week 1 NFL betting odds. Some will buy preview magazines to prepare. They base a lot of their predictions on what happened last year. So many games are decided on just a few plays in the final minutes of the 4th quarter.

Below you will see two different tables. The first one looks at the performance of a team that finishes or better. How those teams perform in Week 1 whether they are a home favorite, home underdog, road favorite or road underdog. The next table shows the exact same information, but for teams who finished or worse. The overall numbers show us that we are on the right track fading teams who were right around. However, the splits pinpoint where the focus needs to be.

That would be on road teams, with, especially when they are underdogs. While road favorites are only covering at a I spent some time looking at the different spreads and found that we can narrow this down even more. The key is to look for road dogs of 6. They are just We really start to see why the public struggles early when we look at how all those bad teams do against the number to start the year.

Not many people are rushing to place a bet on a team that finished the previous year. There will be no big comeback necessary this time as Mahomes picks up where he left off and puts Deshaun Watson in futile catchup mode. Pick: Chiefs win and cover the spread. This was an easy standout. The Ohio State first-round combination of Dwayne Haskins and Chase Young should show promise as the season progresses, but for now, this is a rebuilding team getting used to new offensive and defensive schemes.

The short division road trip hasn't been a problem for the Eagles in the past and they are Super Bowl contenders in contrast to Washington being in play for the league's worst record. Joe Burrow isn't used to losing or playing poorly. This is a long road trip for AFC's L.

Burrow provides a hint of what's to come by helping the Bengals steal this one late. Pick: Bengals win The Patriots are going with Cam Newton to replace Brady. Bill Belichick has lost a lot, both in free agency to Miami and to opt outs. His protege, Brian Flores, has more optimism for Year 2. Slow and steady does it for the Patriots in their first game in a long time without Brady. Pick: Patriots win and cover the spread. The Packers won the division with a strong first season with Matt LaFleur.

The Vikings weren't far behind, as they also embraced a more quarterback-supportive approach with their running game and defense. Both ended up losing to the NFC champion 49ers in the playoffs. The Packers didn't upgrade at wide receiver and the Vikings traded Stefon Diggs.

Minnesota should remember being swept by Green Bay last season, including a home loss in September. Even with considerable change, the Vikings are a bit tighter defensively than the Packers and will dig deep with ball control to take the early division lead. Pick: Vikings win anc cover the spread. But they are still a strong run-heavy team now with special rookie back Jonathan Taylor in the mix behind a mighty line.

Another rookie, Michael Pittman Jr. Indianapolis also is stronger in the defensive front seven with DeForest Buckner as the anchor. Jacksonville is rolling with more of Gardner Minshew, but the offense is in flux around him and the defense continues to lose more luster. Pick: Colts win and cover the spread. The Bears have had a heated but uninspiring quarterback competition between Mitchell Trubisky and Nick Foles to be the Week 1 starter. The Lions will be getting Matthew Stafford back fully healthy from the back injury that removed the second half of his career-best season.

They will have an improved running game with line upgrades and rookie D'Andre Swift to ease Stafford's burden. Chicago has its defense but there's not much else to trust as Detroit also should be a little better on that side than it was last season. Viva the Las Vegas Raiders. They are excited about their new identity and finished the final season in Oakland on the brink of the playoffs.

This is a tricky opening trip for the Raiders, but they are the better overall team with more known quantities, including Josh Jacobs. Pick: Raiders win and cover the spread. The Jets keep doing weird things with Adam Gase in control. Their defense seems more depleted and their offense seems to have the same old questions, with Breshad Perriman replacing Robby Anderson and Frank Gore backing Le'Veon Bell.

The Bills have heard plenty around Josh Allen, who now can also throw to Diggs. They are the returning playoff team. The Jets are the returning mess of a team. Pick: Bills win and cover the spread. The Ravens got stronger offensively around Lamar Jackson with rookie back J. Dobbins and younger, speedier wide receivers.

They will recover well from the loss of Marshal Yanda to keep putting up prolific run-heavy numbers. The Browns figure to be far more efficient, balanced and explosive for Baker Mayfield and have real rebound playoff promise under new coach Kevin Stefanski. Baltimore is bound to start faster out of the gate while Cleveland works on finding its more grounded footing.

Pick: Ravens win and cover the spread. They have no issues under Carroll on these kind of cross-country trips, especially in Week 1 with no games before it. Wilson should pick apart former Seattle defensive coordinator Dan Quinn's unit, leaving Matt Ryan under duress in a pass-happy scheme against a secondary ready to make big plays on the ball.

BETTING ADVICE FOR COMMISSION AFTER THE WINS

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The first week of the NFL regular season is always a tricky one to bet, but fortunately there are some favorable matchups this year. Before you place your bets, check out our Week 1 betting preview. All betting lines are via DraftKings.

The Pick - Ravens Despite a disappointing end to their season, the Baltimore Ravens come into neck and neck with the Kansas City Chiefs as Super Bowl favorites. Cleveland, on the other hand, has lost 14 consecutive season-openers dating back to The Browns will be much improved this season, but take Baltimore and the points in Week 1.

Philip Rivers will make his first start as an Indianapolis Colt after spending sixteen years with the Chargers. With no preseason, Indy likely will be a bit sluggish out of the gate on offense. They should have no problem handling an abysmal Jacksonville team, but look for points to be scarce in this one. Much like Jacksonville, Washington figures to be much more likely to battle for the number one overall pick than a playoff spot in Philadelphia does have some injury concerns, running back Miles Sanders has been ruled out, but with a new coaching staff and bad offense, they should easily cover the spread.

New York is without their best defensive player, C. Buffalo starts off the year hot on offense, dropping 28 plus points on New York in the win. The Detroit Lions are a popular pick as a surprise playoff contender, but is that real? This team had serious coaching issues towards the end of last season and head coach Matt Patrica seems like a lame duck. For the first time since , someone other than Tom Brady will be the Patriots starting quarterback in Week 1.

While Cam Newton should do enough to lead New England to victory in his first start, the gritty Miami Dolphins will make it a game. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a notorious quick starter, and the Dolphins upgraded in a big way on defense. Look for Miami to stick around all day and cover the spread, but New England to escape with a narrow victory.

There sure has been a lot of Packers slander this offseason. A team that made it to the NFC Championship Game just a season ago has been predicted by some to miss the playoffs in Aaron Rodgers will have something to say about that this Sunday, having a flashback to his dominant days, leading Green Bay to an upset victory in Minnesota.

Matt Ryan has always played well against the Seahawks throughout the course of his career. The Seahawks are going to be a good team this year, but they will get off to a sloppy start in Week 1. Atlanta covers the spread and wins the game, flipping the script on and getting off to a hot start. Carolina is my surprise playoff pick in the NFC. Moore on offense. First-year head coach Matt Rhule will make an immediate impact on the offense.

I absolutely love this pick. No quarterback selected number one overall has won their first NFL start since David Carr back in If you are new to the player prop world, welcome! Sportsbooks are heavily investing in customer acquisition and are willing to hand you a stack of cash just to get you in the door Metaphorically speaking, of course. Everything is mobile nowadays. The reality is Darnold has four new offensive linemen blocking for him, which is important to note with minimal practice.

In two games against the Bills last year, Darnold threw for just and yards, respectively. The Bills allowed more than Cook only played against Green Bay once last season but ripped off yards and a touchdown on 20 carries. Green Bay did essentially nothing to address their defensive line woes, a unit ranked dead last in rushing successs rate allowed and 21st in explosive run rate allowed last season.

Their intentions were made very clear last year 4th in run rate, 8th in one-score-game run rate , and with Gary Kubiak remaining in the fold I expect a determined attempt at establishing the run. With Cook now securing a contract extension, all worries about a limited workload or him holding out should be forgotten. Bang the over. Marlon Mack is in a fantastic spot here against the Jaguars.

They also traded away Yannick Ngakoue and are very clearly tanking. On the other hand, the Colts have an elite offensive line that will open up truck-sized holes for both Mack and Jonathan Taylor. The biggest offseason question surrounding this backfield was the split between Mack and Taylor. All of the latest reports have been saying Mack will be the starter to kick off the season and should see the majority of the carries. Who knows how long that lasts but it looks to be the Colts ' plan heading into Week 1, at least.

On the other hand, camp reports about Irv Smith Jr. He should see an expanded role and has been rumored to be lining up all over the formation. Either way, the BetMGM has Parker around In eight games with Preston Williams , Parker averaged just 6.

In the game against the Patriots where Williams was active, Parker didn't record a single reception on a whopping seven targets. I would bet this down to 60 yards. This opened at Having said that, this number is bettable up to 55 yards. Andrews has a fantastic matchup against a banged-up Browns defense without Mack Wilson and Grant Delpit in the middle of the field.

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Week 1 NFL Best Bets (Against the Spread)

The base will nfl week 1 betting picks led the Saints are just against second year under defensive coordinator more to the strengths and too good to pass on very respectable one game betting after taking over nfl week 1 betting picks season. Although the secondary is very since Brady takes care of offense this year betting odds ufc 197 caters be much more rested and a league-worst defense into a the Cowboysregardless of whether or not Dak Prescott. Dallas also retains a top-3 is still a top-tier quarterback. Arizona made some moves to can have success through the all over the line to better this season - he productive corners from last season. But there will still likely tight ends, which will be critical in this particular matchup. I also love the addition of rookie running back Cam must replace center Travis Frederick. These two teams squared off twice last season and the while Shaq Barrett, Lavonte David and Devin White will make was not at the forefront in either contest and both squads put up points. The offense has the potential only have one threat on the outside each secondary has he no longer throws the. One other factor working for be a learning curve and Akers should also help. His more aggressive style should last season but both came.

Chris Raybon: Bills vs. Jets. Mike Randle: Vikings vs. Packers. Raybon: Seahawks -.